Great job buddy. I have a follow-up analysis on this work that I am working on. Might be worth sharing when done. :) Will answer in email thread when done.
I would also like to see the deaths plotted against the variants.
It is especially confusing when you note that many vaccine rollouts coincided with (or shortly before) new variants. I feel sometimes it's like a chicken-egg question. Are new variants driving deaths? Are doses driving new variants?
Very clear. One would have to be [wilfully] blind not to see the obvious in this. One small curiosity the deaths in 0-14 before the jabs seem to excessively LESS than expected [deficit. way into the green] ... any reasons why this was so?
Feb 10, 2023·edited Feb 10, 2023Liked by Josh Guetzkow
Lockdowns played a part. There are only around 300 deaths in this age group, per month, in Germany. I remember having seen statistics on school accidents, way down in 2020. Also less kids drowning in pools, and such.
In Israel there were much less clinic visits (for any reason) during 2020, for all ages. Maybe having less unnecessary (or even harmful) medicines, tests and surgeries saved lives?
Feb 10, 2023·edited Feb 10, 2023Liked by Josh Guetzkow
As we know, the younger ones engage in more risky activities. So when they were under house arrest, they could not engage in those activities and hence there were less deaths.
Their method cannot be easily summarized -- they approached it from several angles to find the one they felt the most confidence about, but they also show there is uncertainty in their estimates, of course.
So they didn't rely on the Fast Food" method of driving through Our World in Data ? That's what true scientists should do, make an effort to find the best model.
Regarding all-cause mortality, in the US, a confounding factor was the payments from the governments to hospitals. Those payments required a specific protocol for COVID-positive patients that banned certain treatments, including off-label use of many drugs and intravenous administration of vitamin D. If doctors treated patients differently than the prescribed protocol, the hospital did not receive the COVID funding. In addition, hospitals were paid extra if they put patients on ventilators. Were there similar COVID-specific incentives in Germany?
This may come across as negative. That is unintended.
The .pdf suggests that mortality fell for the over 80's in 2020 and 2021 vs 2016, 2017, 2018. Really?
Some indication of the vaccination rates would be useful to compare Germany with other countries, ie more jabs may suggest higher excess deaths.
A breakdown by age and best estimate of the German population would be useful to others. I saw that this data was well referenced in the bibliography, but seeing it in the paper would remove any doubt about the baseline. I note that the German population increased by 1.1% between end 2021 and end 2022.
The annualised data for excess deaths may cause some important data to be lost. It is clear from the charts that excess deaths may be concentrated in particular periods, hence the observation window is important.
As we appear to have been experiencing some shifting seasonality of flu and other typical seasonal viruses in Gemany, I wonder if mortality years (i.e. only including a single winter) would be more informative as opposed to calendar years - particularly for comparison of the pandemic period which exhibited double winter peaks split across separate calendar years.
Regarding weekly figures, I also think possible effects of shifted seasonality will distort year-on-year comparisons of weekly or monthly figures. I recognise that excess deaths occured throughout the year, so not to negate their outstanding work, but just to add some important, perhaps overlooked context, especially regarding the alarming December 2022 death totals.
It's just a minor issue. Make no mistake, Germany's December '22 deaths were still high, regardless.
I don't fully understand it, but one aspect seems to have been that peak winter influenza season came early in December instead of more typically around now in February. So there may be a kind of pull-forward effect taking some expected deaths from early '23 into December '22 making December and the whole calendar year 2022 look worse than it actually is (but it's still not good). We won't really know until winter is over.
Of course, the bigger story than December is the sustained excess mortality throughout the year across the different age groups.
Again, their paper is very impressive. We've really been waiting for such a comprehensive treatment of the issue.
Thanks for the Like, and that update. I was a little concerned.
It's a terrific piece of work, though I'll have to drill down on the detail to understand what is really going on.
In early 2020 it looks like Germany did better than the UK by a country mile, especially for the elderly. The downside is that fatalities may be higher in Germany in later years.
Hopefully I can get access to more of the raw data from the cited sources.
Can you please ask the authors whether their data covers the entire 2020-2022 period, as I see the pre-print was July 2022.
Also, can they comment on how their result compares with The OWID result, which is based on the projected baseline method. I just checked there, and it shows Germany eith 178,000 excess deaths to 25th December 2022, yet their results were only 103,000 I believe.
Version 1 of the pre-print was from July, but version 2 is from Feb 2023 and includes all the data from 2022. OWID has a different method of calculating excess deaths. I believe the authors' method is more accurate or at least more careful.
The horror grows & expands daily. Yet govtards are still encouraging folk to get injected with now, a clearly shown to be risky at least & dnagerous, even fatal at worst liquid.
Great job buddy. I have a follow-up analysis on this work that I am working on. Might be worth sharing when done. :) Will answer in email thread when done.
Striking when you see jabs plotted with deaths.
I would also like to see the deaths plotted against the variants.
It is especially confusing when you note that many vaccine rollouts coincided with (or shortly before) new variants. I feel sometimes it's like a chicken-egg question. Are new variants driving deaths? Are doses driving new variants?
I'll send you some variant stratified charts for the USA that I made in the past days.
I have new weekly first/second doses plotted onto the same chart
"Variants" are simply excuses for the vaccine failure we all knew was coming.
In order to improve my chances of survival I've turned 50 in early 2021. It was getting hot in the 40-49 age-band.
Seriously, great work!
Finland, Australia:
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/unprecedented-mortality-in-finland
Horribly tragic.Great statistics. Thanks
Very clear. One would have to be [wilfully] blind not to see the obvious in this. One small curiosity the deaths in 0-14 before the jabs seem to excessively LESS than expected [deficit. way into the green] ... any reasons why this was so?
Lockdowns played a part. There are only around 300 deaths in this age group, per month, in Germany. I remember having seen statistics on school accidents, way down in 2020. Also less kids drowning in pools, and such.
See also Section 5.2.1 in the paper.
Agreed, though for the UK, the trend is much more apparent for the 15-19 age group. Well, until the jabs started.
In Israel there were much less clinic visits (for any reason) during 2020, for all ages. Maybe having less unnecessary (or even harmful) medicines, tests and surgeries saved lives?
As we know, the younger ones engage in more risky activities. So when they were under house arrest, they could not engage in those activities and hence there were less deaths.
So tragic. Thank you Josh.
Such a good analysis, Josh.
I wish I could take credit for it! The best I can say is that I'm fortunate to know so many brilliant minds.
I preemptively like Guetzkow posts. I'll get around to reading this in due time.
And what method did the professors use to calculate XS deaths? If necessary I will download and read the attachment.
Their method cannot be easily summarized -- they approached it from several angles to find the one they felt the most confidence about, but they also show there is uncertainty in their estimates, of course.
So they didn't rely on the Fast Food" method of driving through Our World in Data ? That's what true scientists should do, make an effort to find the best model.
Getting into their study now. OMG, they left nothing to chance.
It uses Actuarial Science as opposed to linear regression models.
Well explained.
Regarding all-cause mortality, in the US, a confounding factor was the payments from the governments to hospitals. Those payments required a specific protocol for COVID-positive patients that banned certain treatments, including off-label use of many drugs and intravenous administration of vitamin D. If doctors treated patients differently than the prescribed protocol, the hospital did not receive the COVID funding. In addition, hospitals were paid extra if they put patients on ventilators. Were there similar COVID-specific incentives in Germany?
Good question, I don't know.
This may come across as negative. That is unintended.
The .pdf suggests that mortality fell for the over 80's in 2020 and 2021 vs 2016, 2017, 2018. Really?
Some indication of the vaccination rates would be useful to compare Germany with other countries, ie more jabs may suggest higher excess deaths.
A breakdown by age and best estimate of the German population would be useful to others. I saw that this data was well referenced in the bibliography, but seeing it in the paper would remove any doubt about the baseline. I note that the German population increased by 1.1% between end 2021 and end 2022.
The annualised data for excess deaths may cause some important data to be lost. It is clear from the charts that excess deaths may be concentrated in particular periods, hence the observation window is important.
But they also break it down by week, not just annual.
As we appear to have been experiencing some shifting seasonality of flu and other typical seasonal viruses in Gemany, I wonder if mortality years (i.e. only including a single winter) would be more informative as opposed to calendar years - particularly for comparison of the pandemic period which exhibited double winter peaks split across separate calendar years.
Regarding weekly figures, I also think possible effects of shifted seasonality will distort year-on-year comparisons of weekly or monthly figures. I recognise that excess deaths occured throughout the year, so not to negate their outstanding work, but just to add some important, perhaps overlooked context, especially regarding the alarming December 2022 death totals.
I have discussed this shifting seasonality in a substack post here: https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/seasonality-shifts
You should send your comments to Christof. But doesn't the weekly analysis take care of this issue?
How would I send comments to him? Is he on Twitter?
I think his email address is listed on the pre-print, no? That's the best way
It's just a minor issue. Make no mistake, Germany's December '22 deaths were still high, regardless.
I don't fully understand it, but one aspect seems to have been that peak winter influenza season came early in December instead of more typically around now in February. So there may be a kind of pull-forward effect taking some expected deaths from early '23 into December '22 making December and the whole calendar year 2022 look worse than it actually is (but it's still not good). We won't really know until winter is over.
Of course, the bigger story than December is the sustained excess mortality throughout the year across the different age groups.
Again, their paper is very impressive. We've really been waiting for such a comprehensive treatment of the issue.
Thanks for the Like, and that update. I was a little concerned.
It's a terrific piece of work, though I'll have to drill down on the detail to understand what is really going on.
In early 2020 it looks like Germany did better than the UK by a country mile, especially for the elderly. The downside is that fatalities may be higher in Germany in later years.
Hopefully I can get access to more of the raw data from the cited sources.
Can you please ask the authors whether their data covers the entire 2020-2022 period, as I see the pre-print was July 2022.
Also, can they comment on how their result compares with The OWID result, which is based on the projected baseline method. I just checked there, and it shows Germany eith 178,000 excess deaths to 25th December 2022, yet their results were only 103,000 I believe.
Regards
Terry
Terry you can contact the authors directly.
Version 1 of the pre-print was from July, but version 2 is from Feb 2023 and includes all the data from 2022. OWID has a different method of calculating excess deaths. I believe the authors' method is more accurate or at least more careful.
Beautifully done. Thank you.
Josh&$% Right On.
We're on a train with no brakes. It's everything, not just jabs. Look at Ukraine.
On a train with no brakes headed over a cliff... Looks like a long way down!
Thank you for posting this Sir.
The horror grows & expands daily. Yet govtards are still encouraging folk to get injected with now, a clearly shown to be risky at least & dnagerous, even fatal at worst liquid.